The higher trade tariffs imposed by the United States on all its trading partners worldwide have been the biggest news in global commerce over recent months. A 30% tariff on South Africa’s exports to the US has many local exporters reconsidering their trading partners. At this stage, there is also no indication that the US will renew the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), the trade agreement between the US and several African countries, including SA. AGOA had been in place since 2000, but lapsed in September 2025.

Both these developments could potentially shift the balance of SA’s international trade relations – especially considering that China has been our largest trading partner for 15 years, while SA is Beijing’s biggest partner in Africa.

China–Africa trade relations

China–South Africa total trade, including both exports and imports, amounted to US$34.18 billion in 2024, according to South African Revenue Service trade data. As in other African markets, much of this trade is driven by China’s demand for raw materials and access to markets for its manufactured goods.

China is to some extent stepping into the trade breach left by the withdrawal of US trade interests in Africa. SA’s longstanding membership of BRICS provides a possible alternative to some of the lost trading revenue. China has been our largest trading partner for some time and, through the China–Africa Economic Partnership for Shared Development (CAEPSD), has pledged to eliminate import tariffs on goods from all 53 African nations with which it has formal diplomatic ties.

To reach those goals, CAEPSD focuses on providing better market access, inspection, quarantine and customs clearance processes to facilitate trade in African goods, improving technical and skills training, and expanding the promotion of quality products.

Opportunities for South Africa–China trade

SA has not imposed retaliatory tariffs in response to the current US policy, but it’s clear to many that we need to bolster trade in the Global South. This could be a challenge for SA, considering that our protracted electricity crisis and port inefficiencies are major factors in our overall export decline – especially in mining and beneficiated metals.

South African agricultural exports already enjoy zero tariffs in China, a trade arrangement of great benefit to our agricultural sector that began in 2015. China is a leading global importer of agricultural goods and buys 80% of SA’s macadamia nut crop. In October 2025, the Beijing and Pretoria administrations signed a deal to export 5 types of South African-grown stone fruit to China, including peaches, plums, and apricots.

In other industry sectors, SA’s economy needs global growth to drive demand for its commodity exports, which further support growth in other sectors of our economy. If global growth slows, our economy is also likely to expand less than anticipated.

Since China’s economy is a primary driver of commodity demand and global growth, its role is increasingly important. Any weakening in the Chinese economy and its demand for commodities could spell trouble for SA and other African economies. Stronger demand, on the other hand, boosts export earnings and pushes African currency values higher, resulting in lower inflation.

With many predicting that, given the volatility of international trade, commodity prices will rise in the near term (especially for precious metals), the South African economy could see a boost. We have also submitted a more diversified list of more than 100 products – many that were previously exported to the US – that we are hoping to expand into the Chinese market. They include vehicle parts, organic chemicals, and plastic-related goods.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a global infrastructure strategy, connecting continents through investments and trade. Engagement between South African companies and China through the BRI is growing in sectors like mining, agriculture, and technology – the 2024 PWC South Africa-China Trade Report showed that more than 40% of South African exports to China now benefit directly from BRI-driven logistics improvements.

The BRI also enables African countries to diversify exports, attract infrastructure investment, and market their products in China more efficiently and cost-effectively. It streamlines logistics, reduces customs barriers, and offers special incentives for sectors such as manufacturing and high tech.

The BRI has identified 3 steps that foreign businesses should take if they want to engage with the Chinese market successfully:

• Market research – While China’s business reforms have eased market entry, sector-specific research is essential.
  
  
• Legal and regulatory compliance – Exporters need to adhere to local laws.
  
  
• Strategic partnerships – Partnering with a local business will facilitate trade.

The BRI offers various avenues to help South African businesses enter the Chinese market. China’s business environment is geared towards diversification and expansion, and is very supportive of bilateral trade between the 2 countries.

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