Since his inauguration as US president in January 2025, Donald Trump and his administration have made trade tariffs part of their worldwide economic policy. In many cases, the US government has repeatedly set and then changed tariffs, extending deadlines to negotiate trade deals. But with no new deal in place, South African exports to the US are now subject to tariffs.

The Trump administration has made it clear that it wants to impose tariffs to reduce the US trade deficit, which it blames on 'unfair' trade practices. Trump claims that he will create more US jobs and a stronger domestic economy by moving American manufacturing back to the country after decades of economic globalisation and outsourcing. In contrast, most global economists believe that the US economy will in fact be hit hard by the tariffs.

Trump’s trade tariffs on South Africa

A 30% tariff on South African exports to the US came into effect on 7 August. Significantly, this tariff exempts platinum, titanium and other raw materials vital to the US auto industry. Although they account for only a third of South African exports to America, the US demand for these commodities is the main cause of SA’s trade surplus with the US.

However, tariffs will make their greatest impact in a reduction of demand for South African manufactured goods (especially in the automotive sector), metals, and other exports like citrus crops, that have a higher added value.

Key trade figures from 2024

• South African exports of goods to the US: $14.9 billion
• South African imports of goods from the US: $5.8 billion
• South African exports of services to the US: $2.19 billion
• South African imports of services from the US: $3.52 billion

Trade tariffs in context

Tariffs are taxes charged on goods imported from other countries, set at a percentage of a product's value. A 10% tariff means a $10 product has a $1 tax added – taking the total cost to $11 for the importer. Companies that bring foreign goods into the US now pay this tax to the federal government. They may pass the extra costs on to customers or decide to import fewer goods.

Trump believes his sweeping tariffs programme will reduce the gap between the value of goods the US buys from other countries and those it sells to them – known as the trade deficit – but it also means that American buyers will pay more for many imports. US trade regulations now include 50% taxes on steel, aluminium and copper imports, and 25% on foreign-made cars and parts. Tariffs are meant to boost US manufacturing and protect jobs, but the policy has thrown the world economy into chaos – several American companies have already increased prices for US consumers as a result.

Political positions trumping stable economics

The tariff rates vary widely. Goods from countries with which Trump has political grievances, like Brazil and India, are subject to particularly high rates. Goods from other countries that have struck trade deals with the US (or whose leaders align with Trump’s global policies) face lower rates. American importers face 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods, 20% on Vietnamese goods, 35% on Russian goods, and 50% on Indian goods (in retaliation for India buying oil from Russia).

The US has already struck a deal with the European Union, charging 15% tariffs on certain products, and lifting reciprocal tariffs on some American exports to the EU. Another notable exception to the global tariff war is China – Trump has set and then revised or ‘paused’ tariffs on China 4 times since February 2025. US-China negotiations on the issue are now scheduled to continue until November 2025.

The dollar, usually seen as a haven for investors, has been unusually volatile in its market valuations. Regarding the outlook for the US economy, the tariffs policy has prompted both the International Monetary Fund and the influential Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development to downgrade their predictions for global economic growth in 2025.

Impact on the South African economy

Our largest export markets are in automotive and agricultural produce. According to the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa, South African automotive exports to the US dropped by 82.2% year-on-year in unit terms in the first half of 2025. South African Revenue Service data for the same period shows that vehicles and accessories (including parts) are down 45%.

Some areas of agricultural exports remain surprisingly robust, by contrast. The citrus industry reported record export values of R7.1 billion in the first half of 2025, according to Citrus Growers Association data.

The JSE has estimated the overall negative GDP impact of the tariffs at around 0.2%, despite the US being our third-biggest export market after China and the EU. All the industries directly affected are looking to diversify their markets in response to the tariff situation.

Nedbank offers a range of global trade solutions to help your business navigate the export scenarios currently unfolding.